College football realignment 2024: Which programs advance, decline after conference expansion (2024)

Projected final record: 3-9, 1-7

ACC newcomer Stanford finished3-9 in thePac-12 last season andis expected to post a similar record with one of the ACC's toughest schedulesthis season. Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and SMU comprise a brutal four-game stretch that could be season-defining for this group. The Cardinal gets a breather against Wake Forest before two more tough matchups against NC State and Louisville.Locating wins is a tall task.

Projected final record: 9-3, 6-2

Expect SMU to have the best season of any ACC newcomer, and its debut schedule is a big reason why. The Mustangs should go 3-1 in the non-conference, with its lone loss coming on Sonny Dykes' return trip to University Park. A manageable conference slate has SMU clinching back-to-back nine-win seasons for the first time since the early 1980s. SMU also returns multi-year starter Preston Stone at quarterback, a playmaker who hasn't received his due in the signal caller conversation this summer despite sizable numbers.

Projected final record: 6-6, 3-5

Cal has the talent to makeback-to-back bowl games for just the second time during Justin Wilcox's eight years at the helm and is a dark-horse candidate in the ACC. The trip to Auburn will be tough, as will the stretch against Florida State, Miami, Pittsburgh and NC State. Fortunately for Cal, the schedule loosens up from there.And the presence of Jaydn Ott in the backfield should provide the Bears with a puncher's chance in every contest. Getting to bowl season would be an accomplishment to finish out Year 1 in their new league.

Projected final record: 9-3, 6-3

The return of star quarterbackCam Risinggives Utah a strong chance to compete for a conference title as it transitions to the Big 12. However, Rising last played on January 2, 2023, meaning it will be over 600 days before he takes the field again for the Utes' 2024 opener. The schedule is rather favorable forKyle Whittingham, who will match up with one of the other longest-tenured head coaches in the FBS when Utah visits Oklahoma State in September. That battle with Mike Gundy and the Pokes could decide which team ultimately goes to Arlington for the Big 12 title game.

Projected final record: 3-9, 1-8

Arizona State and second-year head coachKenny Dillinghamcould use some better luck in 2024 after injuries littered the roster last season. Unfortunately, the Big 12 dealt the Sun Devils the toughest schedule. Do not count out the potential for an upset in Tempe, but the ceiling is just not that for Arizona State as it continues to clean up a mess left by the previous staff under Herm Edwards.

Projected final record: 5-7, 3-6

In terms of overall record, perhaps the Buffaloes are a game or two better than last season's showing in the Pac-12, so they get the "advance" connotation here with All-American candidates returning on offense. AndDeion Sandersremains one of the most polarizing figures in college football. However, Colorado must back up thetalk withmore wins in 2024, or it will face even harsher criticism. And the future in this league looks grim for the program unless Sanders can consistently sign top 25 classes. Returning to the Big 12 presents new challenges, and it is uncertain if the ongoing rosterturnover will translate to improved results on the field.Shedeur Sandersinstantly becomes a top quarterback in the league and a healthyTravis Huntergives the Buffaloes a difference maker on both sides of the ball.

Projected final record: 8-4, 6-3

There are plenty of reasons to be high on Arizona as it transitions to the Big 12. The return ofNoah FifitaandTetairoa McMillangives the Wildcats arguably the best quarterback-wide receiver duo in the conference. But how much of a setback — if any — will Arizona take as new head coachBrent Brennantakes the reins afterJedd Fischleft for Washington? The Wildcatswon their last seven games of the 2023 season to finish with double-digits victories for just the fourth time in program history. Still, a lot was lost from that roster despite the return of its top two stars.

Projected final record: 4-8, 2-7

As if the transition from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten was not enough of a challenge forUCLA, the program is also in the middle of a coaching change withDeShaun Fosterlanding his first head coach role and replacingChip Kelly. Foster could lead a recruiting surge for the Bruins, and he hit a pair of coordinator home runs withEric BieniemyandIkaika Malloeon the offensive and defensive sides, respectively, but the on-field product in year one figures to be a step below UCLA's recent standard. QuarterbackEthan Garbersis a nice centerpiece as a first-year starter, but the vast majority of last year's monster defense is gone.

Projected final record: 8-4, 7-2

On paper,Lincoln Rileymade the right decision when he reached this offseason's crossroads. The defensive coordinator hire ofD'Anton LynngivesUSCfar greater upside as it enters the physical Big Ten given that Lynn turned UCLA into a defensive juggernaut during his tenure a few miles away in Westwood. The Trojans still have enough high-end talent to compete with the conference's top dogs, even if quarterbackMiller Mossis not the No. 1 NFL Draft pick Caleb Williams was during his two years atop the offense. A more well-rounded USC squad figures to have instant success in its new league.

Projected final record: 6-6, 3-6

Washingtonbecame the first and only Pac-12 team to ever finish a regular season undefeated last year en route to the national championship game, but its first season in the Big Ten will be a far greater grind. WithKalen DeBoeroff to Alabama and nearly every last one of 2023's key players either embarking on professional careers or seeking opportunities elsewhere, new head coachJedd Fischdoes not have a ton to work with this fall. Incoming transfer quarterbackWill Rogersis a nice piece to build around, though, as he joins the Huskies on the heels of a historic career at Mississippi State.

Projected final record: 11-1, 8-1

Dan Lanningdid everything in his power to prime Oregon for instant success in the Big Ten, and his recruiting efforts promise to pay huge dividends right out of the gate.Dillon Gabrielis a perfect fit as the Ducks' new quarterback, Jordan James offers upside as a possible breakout star, wideout Evan Stewart bolsters an already strong receiving corps and the defense might be Lanning's best yet.Few schools have as much momentum as Oregon, which seems to have hit a grand slam with its most recent head coach hire.

Projected final record: 8-4, 4-4

Oklahoma's first season in the SEC could start in impressive fashion if the Sooners handle Tennessee at home, then topple Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium to conclude a perfect opening month. The pressure of being unbeaten and ranked inside the top 10 could wear on Oklahoma thereafter, beginning with Red River and then going through the SEC gauntlet late against a bevy of national championship contenders. By the time the dust settles on the 2024 season, Oklahoma will be out of the SEC title race, but should be in for a respectable finish inside the top 25.

Projected final record: 11-1, 7-1

You may not see it now, but this Texas team may have theitfactor as conference shocker in 2024. The Longhorns are one of the new kids on the block, but they're not going to take lumps and bruises in the SEC with this roster. It's too good. And a Week 2 win at Michigan is going to send a ripple of momentum through the locker room, much like last year's early win at Alabama provided. Once Texas gets past Michigan, Oklahoma and Georgia, this schedule softens a bit prior to the season finale against Texas A&M. That's where a perfect season ends, one week prior to SEC Championship weekend when the Longhorns have already clinched a spot in the game.

Carter Bahns, Grant Hughes and Cody Nagel contributed to this report.