Three Padres takeaways: Jackson Merrill’s All-Star value, bullpen alarm and line drives (2024)

SAN DIEGO — Over the weekend, the San Diego Padres whiffed at a chance to win a fifth consecutive series. Still, there was plenty to celebrate: Before Sunday’s 9-1 rout by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Jackson Merrill, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez learned in a clubhouse meeting that they had been named National League All-Stars, joining teammates and elected starters Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr.

Here are three takeaways as the Padres close in on the All-Star break.

Jackson Merrill’s selection accentuates unexpected strength

For a few months after the Padres traded Juan Soto in December, the San Diego outfield resembled a potential black hole of production. Tatis reported to spring training as the only proven major-league starting outfielder in camp. Profar, coming off the worst season of his career, signed a $1 million deal days later. Merrill had yet to make his professional debut in the outfield.

Now, for the first time, three Padres outfielders have been selected to the same All-Star Game. Tatis supplied ample production before he was sidelined by a stress reaction in his right leg. Profar unexpectedly has been the Padres’ best performer and a league MVP candidate. Meanwhile, you could argue that Merrill has been the biggest game-changer for a team that has more than stayed afloat despite a raft of injuries.

Merrill is the first Padres rookie and the youngest Padre ever to be named an All-Star. He’s the franchise’s first homegrown All-Star since Jake Peavy in 2007, an organizational triumph for a club that desperately needed inexpensive impact. A relatively weak class of National League outfielders helped make Merrill’s selection possible, but the 21-year-old earned his way by demonstrating rare aptitude on offense, playing strong defense at a new position, and generally carrying himself well beyond his years.

Jackson Merrill is the NL Rookie of the Month for June!

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The @Padres outfielder joins #MLBTonight to talk about the team, what's working at the plate and hitting a home run right to his mom at Fenway! pic.twitter.com/r8GT7ISKVM

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 3, 2024

“Maybe there’s gonna be a second where I sit and think (about being an All-Star), but I was pissed off today when we lost regardless of what I got told today,” Merrill said after Sunday’s game. “My mind is always focused on the team over myself individually.”

Merrill, the reigning National League Rookie of the Month, has brought immense value while making the major-league minimum salary. He has been worth 2.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement, trailing only Profar and the New York Mets’ Brandon Nimmo among National League outfielders. Trent Grisham, the center fielder Merrill replaced, never topped 2.5 WAR in a full season with San Diego. He’s currently at 0.3 WAR as a reserve outfielder for the New York Yankees.

During Sunday’s clubhouse meeting, Padres manager Mike Shildt announced that Suarez and Arraez had been selected as All-Stars before breaking the good news to Merrill. At that, the room erupted.

“I was happy when I saw (Merrill’s) face,” said Arraez, who was named to a third consecutive All-Star Game. “I thought he was gonna cry. If I’m him, I cry, but he deserves it, man. He plays hard.”

No matter how this season ends, the Padres can feel similar gratitude when it comes to a premium position. Merrill’s virtually immediate ascent to stardom is a game-changer for a franchise, and a city, that had been starving for homegrown impact.

Multi-alarm bullpen fire

Across three games against a Diamondbacks team chasing them in the wild-card standings, the Padres bullpen continued to sound an SOS. San Diego relievers in that span combined to allow 16 runs over 8 2/3 innings.

The unit has a 4.14 ERA despite strong first halves by Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon. Those pitchers often have been needed in less-than-ideal circ*mstances — pitching a third consecutive day, for example — further exposing the Padres’ lack of reliable middle relief. For much of the season, veterans Enyel De Los Santos (4.75 ERA, 5.53 FIP) and Wandy Peralta (4.32 ERA, 5.66 FIP) have been the biggest culprits.

The Padres also need rotation reinforcements — Joe Musgrove remains weeks from a potential return, and Yu Darvish is on the restricted list indefinitely because of a private family matter — but they may not be able to afford to wait much longer to trade for a reliever or two. While president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been busy working the phone, he faces the challenges of limited prospect capital and a high-demand, low-supply market for effective relievers.

Still, it should be noted that the late-game heroics of Profar and Manny Machado on Friday saved the Padres from a potential sweep. And that the bullpen came close to being responsible for a sweep. Winners of 12 of their past 17 games, the Padres need to continue banking as many victories as they can before innings limits and other rotation holes become magnified. Amid that pursuit, bullpen additions are a must.

Lining the way to consistency

In 2023, the Padres hit .244 with a 22.4 percent line-drive rate that ranked 28th in the majors. So far in 2024, the Padres are second in the majors with a .263 average. Their 25.9 percent line-drive rate entering Sunday also ranked second.

It has never been harder to get a major-league hit since the mound was lowered in 1969. The Padres have counteracted this by employing more of a line-drive approach. Some of this is by necessity; Tatis recently joined Xander Bogaerts on the injured list, although both players have above-average line-drive rates. Some of this is a product of the composition of a post-Soto roster. And some of it is a response to a 2023 season in which the Padres were frequently frustrated by long flyouts at Petco Park.

“Our approach is built … for this ballpark,” Shildt said earlier this season. “Petco Park hitting, that’s just using the whole field, take what the game gives you. We got guys like Arraez who are built for this ballpark as well.”

A more contact-oriented mindset includes some tradeoffs. The Padres finished last season with a .742 OPS, and they now have a .736 OPS. But, with league-wide offense down again, their current mark ranks ninth in the majors. Meanwhile, they are eighth in runs scored and, according to FanGraphs, first in OPS in high-leverage situations. Last season, their OPS in such spots was 29th.

(Photo: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

Dennis Lin is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the San Diego Padres. He previously covered the Padres for the San Diego Union-Tribune. He is a graduate of USC. Follow Dennis on Twitter @dennistlin